5 Most Overrated and 5 Most Underrated Teams in the 2026 AP Preseason Top 25

The Preseason Poll's Most Contentious Rankings

Every AP preseason poll produces its share of disagreements, and the 2026 edition is no exception. While Ohio State at No. 1 and Oregon at No. 2 generated relatively little debate, the rankings from No. 3 through No. 25 have produced sharp disagreements among analysts, coaches, and fans. Drawing on analysis from SI, The Athletic, and multiple national outlets, here are the five most overrated and five most underrated teams in the 2026 AP Preseason Top 25.

Most Overrated

1. Georgia at No. 3

Georgia's placement at No. 3 is the most debated single ranking in the entire poll. The Bulldogs lost eight starters from last year's defense, including three first-round NFL Draft picks, and their quarterback situation — Gunner Stockton's first season as a full-time starter — is the most significant question mark of any top-five team. The schedule is favorable, but the analytical models project Georgia more as a 9-3 team than a 11-1 team. The preseason brand recognition is carrying the Bulldogs a spot or two above where the data suggests they should be.

2. Alabama at No. 11

At first glance, Alabama at No. 11 seems reasonable. But the Crimson Tide's roster is in transition under Kalen DeBoer, and the loss of several key contributors from the 2025 team has not been adequately replaced through the transfer portal. Alabama's schedule — road games at Wisconsin, LSU, and Oklahoma — is among the toughest in the SEC, and the quarterback competition between Keelon Russell and Austin Mack is still unresolved. Multiple analytical models project Alabama outside the top 15, making the No. 11 ranking a confidence vote in the program's brand rather than its current roster.

3. LSU at No. 12

LSU's placement at No. 12 is the most polarizing ranking in the poll. The Tigers' transfer class — the best in the country — has generated significant hype, but the analytical models are skeptical. LSU's defensive line, which lost three starters to the NFL, is a significant concern, and the team's schedule — road games at Texas A&M, Florida, and Alabama — is among the SEC's most difficult. The Tigers' talent ceiling is top-5, but their floor is unranked, and the No. 12 ranking may be the most volatile position in the entire poll.

4. BYU at No. 18

BYU's placement at No. 18 is the most surprising ranking in the Big 12 section of the poll. The Cougars lost their starting quarterback and top two receivers from last season, and their defensive coordinator departed for a Power Four job. The Big 12 is deeper than it has been in years, and BYU's schedule — road games at Texas Tech, Baylor, and Colorado — is a minefield. The analytical models project BYU as a 7-5 team, which would place them outside the top 25 entirely.

5. Washington at No. 17

Washington's No. 17 ranking is a holdover from the program's 2024 national championship appearance. The 2025 season was a disappointment (8-5), and the 2026 roster has significant holes at wide receiver and in the secondary. The Huskies' schedule — road games at Michigan, Oregon, and USC — is among the Big Ten's most difficult. The analytical models project Washington as a 7-5 team, making the No. 17 ranking a ranking of the program's name rather than its current strength.

Most Underrated

1. Texas at No. 4

Texas should be No. 2, not No. 4. The Longhorns return the most talented roster in the SEC, led by Heisman frontrunner Arch Manning, and Steve Sarkisian's offense is the most innovative in the conference. The analytical models project Texas as a 11-1 team with a top-2 finish in the SEC, and the Longhorns' schedule — while challenging — is more favorable than Oregon's or Georgia's. The preseason AP poll's placement of Texas at No. 4 is the single most significant undervaluation in the entire poll.

2. Oregon at No. 2

Oregon at No. 2 is actually a fair ranking, but given the Ducks' performance in 2025 — a 12-1 season and a playoff appearance — and the return of quarterback Dante Moore, there is a strong case for Oregon to be No. 1. The analytical models project Oregon as a 11-1 team with a top-3 finish, and the Ducks' schedule — while including a road game at Ohio State — is the most manageable of any top-five team. The biggest argument for Oregon being underrated is that the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is smaller than the poll suggests.

3. Notre Dame at No. 5

Notre Dame at No. 5 is the most defensible ranking in the top 10, but the Fighting Irish are a popular candidate for underrated status. The analytical models project Notre Dame as a 10-2 team with a top-5 finish, and the schedule — which includes Ohio State, Clemson, and USC — is the most difficult of any top-10 team. The Fighting Irish's defense, which returns nine starters, is the best in the ACC, and the quarterback situation — CJ Carr's first season as a starter — is the only question mark. If Carr performs at a high level, Notre Dame has the talent to finish in the top 3.

4. Indiana at No. 6

Indiana at No. 6 is the most fascinating ranking in the poll. The defending national champions are being treated as a top-10 team, but the analytical models suggest they should be higher. The Hoosiers return the core of a team that won the national championship, and Curt Cignetti's coaching track record suggests that the program's success is sustainable. The schedule is favorable, and the Big Ten's expansion has created a path to the playoff that does not require winning the conference. Indiana at No. 6 is a reasonable ranking, but the Hoosiers have the talent to finish in the top 3, and the poll's skepticism about their staying power may be misplaced.

5. SMU at No. 20

SMU at No. 20 is the most underrated ranking in the poll's second half. The Mustangs return 15 starters from a team that went 10-3 in 2025, and their ACC schedule — road games at Clemson and Miami, but home games against Florida State and Louisville — is manageable. The analytical models project SMU as a 9-3 team with a top-15 finish, and the program's momentum under Rhett Lashlee — including the No. 1 recruiting class in the ACC for 2027 — suggests that the Mustangs are building something sustainable. SMU at No. 20 is a ranking that will look low in December.

What This Means for CFB 27

In College Football 27, the preseason rankings are a starting point, not a destination. The game's simulation engine accounts for roster talent, coaching ratings, and schedule strength to produce a weekly ranking that often diverges from the initial AP poll. For Dynasty mode players, the most overrated teams — Georgia, Alabama, LSU — represent potential sell-high opportunities in the game's stock market system, where players can invest in a team's playoff odds and cash out when the rankings adjust. Conversely, the most underrated teams — Texas, Oregon, Notre Dame, Indiana, SMU — are buy-low candidates that could produce significant returns over the course of the season.