The Big Ten's Defining Season
The Athletic's Stewart Mandel released his 2026 Big Ten predictions Thursday, and the forecasts paint a picture of a conference at a crossroads. Oregon and Ohio State enter the season as the consensus favorites, loaded with talent and playoff aspirations. Defending national champion Indiana — the team that shocked the sport in 2025 — is the wild card, a program proving its championship was not a fluke but facing a schedule that offers no shelter.
Mandel's predictions, which include projected order of finish, playoff probabilities, and individual award winners, reflect a conference that has never been deeper or more competitive. The Big Ten's expansion has created a 18-team league where the top tier is as strong as any conference in the country, and the middle class is deep enough to produce weekly upsets.
The Favorites: Oregon and Ohio State
Oregon enters the season as Mandel's pick to win the Big Ten Championship. The Ducks return quarterback Dante Moore, who passed on the NFL Draft to lead a team that finished 12-1 in 2025. Oregon's offense — the most explosive in the Big Ten — is complemented by a defense that returns eight starters from a unit that ranked in the top 20 nationally. The schedule is manageable, with the toughest road game at Ohio State in Week 3. Mandel's model projects Oregon at 11-1 with a conference championship appearance.
Ohio State is Mandel's No. 2 pick, and the gap between the Buckeyes and the Ducks is razor-thin. Ohio State's roster is the most talented in the country — wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football, and quarterback Julian Sayin is a top-5 signal-caller — but the schedule is brutal. Road games at Penn State, USC, and Michigan, plus a home date with Oregon, make the Buckeyes' path the most difficult of any top-5 team. Mandel projects Ohio State at 10-2, with a playoff berth secured even without a conference championship.
The Defending Champion: Indiana
Indiana at No. 3 in Mandel's projections is the most fascinating prediction in the entire piece. The Hoosiers are the defending national champions, but they are not the favorites to win their own conference. Curt Cignetti's program has been the subject of intense debate: is Indiana's championship a program-defining moment or a one-year miracle?
Mandel's model projects Indiana at 9-3, with losses to Ohio State, Oregon, and a trap game at Michigan State. The Hoosiers' schedule — road games at Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan State — is among the toughest in the Big Ten. The roster, while talented, is not as deep as Ohio State's or Oregon's, and the loss of several key contributors from the 2025 championship team has created questions about the program's ability to sustain success. Mandel's assessment: Indiana is a top-10 team, but the Big Ten's depth makes a repeat championship unlikely.
The Middle Tier: Michigan, Penn State, USC
Mandel's projections place Michigan at No. 4, with Kyle Whittingham's first full season in Ann Arbor expected to produce a 9-3 record. The Wolverines' schedule — road games at Ohio State, Oregon, and USC — is the toughest in the conference, but the defense — which returns nine starters — is the best in the Big Ten. Michigan's quarterback situation — Bryce Underwood's development — is the single most important variable in the program's season.
Penn State at No. 5 is Mandel's most conservative projection. The Nittany Lions have the talent to compete for a playoff berth, but the schedule — road games at Ohio State, USC, and Michigan — is a gauntlet. Penn State's offensive line, which returns four starters, is the best in the conference outside of Ohio State, and the defense is deep enough to keep games close. Mandel projects Penn State at 8-4, with losses to the three teams ahead of them in the rankings.
USC at No. 6 is the most volatile team in the conference. Lincoln Riley's offense is explosive, but the defense — which lost seven starters to the NFL — is a significant concern. The Trojans' schedule — road games at Oregon, Penn State, and Notre Dame — is brutal. Mandel projects USC at 7-5, a disappointing season that could put Riley on the hot seat.
The Rest of the Conference
Mandel's projections for the remaining Big Ten teams reflect the conference's depth. Washington (No. 7), Iowa (No. 8), Nebraska (No. 9), and Wisconsin (No. 10) are all projected for bowl eligibility, with the potential to upset the top six. The bottom of the conference — Rutgers, Northwestern, Illinois, and Purdue — are projected for 4-8 or worse, reflecting the growing gap between the Big Ten's haves and have-nots.
The most surprising projection in the bottom half is Michigan State at No. 11, which is lower than the Spartans' preseason AP ranking. The roster is talented, but the schedule — road games at Ohio State, Oregon, and Michigan — is among the toughest in the conference. Mandel's model projects Michigan State at 5-7, a disappointing season that would raise questions about the program's trajectory.
What This Means for CFB 27
In College Football 27, the Big Ten is the most competitive conference in Dynasty mode. Oregon and Ohio State enter the season with the highest overall ratings (96 and 95 respectively), making them the most attractive championship contenders. Indiana's 93 overall rating reflects the game's respect for the defending champions, but the roster depth is not as strong as the top two. For Dynasty players, the Big Ten offers the most challenging conference championship path in the game — winning the conference requires navigating a schedule that features multiple top-20 opponents. The game's conference championship system rewards teams that can survive the regular season, and the Big Ten's depth makes every game a potential trap.
