The Bracket After Week 2: Upsets Reshape the Postseason

Week 2's three headline upsets — Texas over Ohio State, Oklahoma State over Oregon, and Michigan over Oklahoma — sent shockwaves through the College Football Playoff projections. ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, On3, and collegefootballnews.com all published updated 12-team bracket predictions on Sunday and Monday, September 13-14.

The consensus: Texas holds the projected No. 1 seed, USC replaces Oregon in the playoff bracket, and the weekend's chaos has created new questions about the Big 12 and Pac-12's postseason representation.

ESPN's Projection: Texas Holds the Top Seed

ESPN published its CFP top-12 projection on Sunday morning (September 13), with Texas taking the projected No. 1 seed after the Ohio State upset. The projection places the following teams in the 12-team field:

  • No. 1 Texas — the projected national champion if they continue winning
  • No. 2 Notre Dame — holds firm after crushing Wisconsin 41-13 in Week 1
  • No. 3 LSU — rises after a dominant 51-10 win over Clemson
  • No. 4 Ohio State — still in the conversation despite the loss
  • No. 5 USC — replaces Oregon in the bracket after a strong start
  • No. 6 Georgia — holds firm after a dominant 70-point explosion

ESPN also projected bowl games for the remaining 16 teams, with Texas Tech, Tennessee, and Alabama among the projected New Year's Six bowl participants.

CBS Sports: USC Replaces Oregon

CBS Sports published its bowl projections on Sunday, with the headline: "USC replaces Oregon in College Football Playoff bracket, Ohio State and Texas hold firm." The projection is notable for several reasons:

  • USC enters the playoff picture despite Oregon's fall to No. 21 — a clear sign that the Trojans' resume is stronger than the Ducks' early-season results.
  • Ohio State remains in the bracket despite the Texas loss — CBS Sports noted that the Buckeyes' resume is still strong enough to warrant a first-round bye.
  • Texas holds the top seed — the upset win over Ohio State is worth more to voters than any other Week 2 result.

Yahoo Sports: CFP 12-Team Projections

Yahoo Sports published its own CFP 12-team projections on Monday, September 14, with similar conclusions. The projection places Texas at No. 1, Notre Dame at No. 2, and LSU at No. 3 — the same top three as ESPN. Oregon is projected as a first-round at-large team, while Oklahoma is projected as a bowl team (not a playoff team).

On3: Bowl Projections

On3 published its bowl projections on Sunday and Monday, with a focus on the expanded bowl slate. The projection includes the CFP 12-team bracket plus all New Year's Six bowl games, plus the remaining bowl games. The headline: "College Football Bowl Projections: CBS Sports releases updated predictions ahead of Week 3."

collegefootballnews.com: What Now?

collegefootballnews.com published a Week 3 CFP prediction analysis on Monday, asking "What Now After This Weekend's Shockers?" The article argues that the weekend's upsets have created a more competitive and unpredictable CFP landscape — the traditional power teams are no longer guaranteed first-round byes, and the expanded 12-team field now includes more at-large teams.

What This Means for the CFP Committee

The CFP committee meets every week to rank teams and determine the 12-team bracket. The Week 3 projections are directly informed by the AP Top 25 poll (released the same day) and the CFP rankings. The key questions for the committee:

  • Is Oregon a CFP team? After falling to No. 21 and losing to an unranked opponent, the Ducks' case is weakened. However, a 1-1 record early in the season is not fatal — the Pac-12's strength of schedule and Oregon's talent remain factors.
  • Is Oklahoma a CFP team? After losing to Michigan, the Sooners' case is also weakened. However, a 1-1 record is not a disaster — the Sooners can still recover with a strong Big 12 schedule.
  • Is Texas the No. 1 seed? The consensus projection says yes. A win over the previous No. 1 team is the strongest possible non-conference résumé.

For CFB27 Players

These CFP projections directly impact team ratings and player values in the game. Texas's projected No. 1 seed means their players will have the highest rating increases. Oregon's potential CFP exclusion means their players will see significant rating decreases. The bracket's stability (or lack thereof) will be a key factor in trade and draft decisions.