FCS vs. Power Four: 5 Potential Upsets That Could Shock College Football in 2026

The Rarity of the FCS Upset

FCS-over-FBS upsets have become increasingly rare in college football. In 2025, only two FCS teams defeated FBS opponents — and neither win came against a Power Four program. The last time an FCS team beat a Power Five opponent was in 2023. But the 2026 season features several matchups that could end that drought. As the talent gap between the top FCS programs and the bottom of the Power Four narrows — driven by the transfer portal, NIL collectives, and improved coaching at the FCS level — the conditions are ripe for a few program-defining victories. Here are the five FCS teams most likely to pull off a stunner in 2026.

1. North Dakota State vs. Colorado (September 5)

The Bison are the gold standard of FCS football, and they'll have a prime opportunity to prove it against Deion Sanders' Colorado Buffaloes in Week 1. North Dakota State returns 17 starters from a team that reached the FCS semifinals in 2025, including quarterback Cam Miller (3,200 passing yards, 32 touchdowns) and a veteran offensive line that averages 310 pounds across the front. Colorado's defense was the worst in the Big 12 in 2025, allowing 34.2 points per game, and the Buffaloes have not addressed their defensive line issues in the transfer portal. The Bison's physical style of play — built on run-first offense and suffocating defense — is the exact blueprint that has produced FCS upsets historically. This game is at Folsom Field, but NDSU's track record on the road (they beat Iowa in Iowa City in 2016) makes this the most likely upset of the season.

2. Montana vs. Washington State (September 12)

The Grizzlies return the most experienced team in the FCS, with 20 returning starters from a team that went 12-2 and reached the FCS quarterfinals in 2025. Montana's defense, led by linebacker Braxton Hill (112 tackles in 2025), is the best in the Big Sky Conference and will face a Washington State offense that is replacing its starting quarterback and top two receivers. The Cougars are in the midst of a transition into the Pac-12 rebuild, and their roster has been depleted by transfers. Montana's option-based offense could control the clock and keep Washington State's offense on the sideline — a classic upset formula.

3. South Dakota State vs. Iowa State (September 19)

The Jackrabbits have been the most consistent FCS program over the past five years, winning national championships in 2023 and 2024 before falling in the semifinals in 2025. South Dakota State returns quarterback Mark Gronowski, a two-time Walter Payton Award finalist who has thrown for over 8,000 yards in his career. The Jackrabbits' offensive line, which returns four starters, is capable of handling Iowa State's defensive front. The Cyclones are in a rebuilding year under head coach Matt Campbell, losing 14 starters from a team that went 7-6 in 2025. This game is in Ames, but South Dakota State has proven they can win on FBS fields — they beat Iowa State's in-state rival Iowa in 2022.

4. Incarnate Word vs. UTSA (September 12)

The battle for San Antonio could be the most competitive FCS-FBS matchup in the state. Incarnate Word has been a rising power in the FCS, reaching the semifinals in 2024 and the quarterfinals in 2025, and the Cardinals return quarterback Zach Calzada (3,500 passing yards, 28 touchdowns), who transferred from UIW to Auburn and back again. UTSA, meanwhile, is in transition, losing head coach Jeff Traylor to the Power Four ranks and 11 starters from a team that went 8-5 in 2025. The Roadrunners' new staff is installing a new system on both sides of the ball, which creates the kind of early-season chaos that FCS teams can exploit. UIW's high-powered passing attack — they averaged 38.2 points per game in 2025 — could overwhelm UTSA's secondary in the first game of the season.

5. Idaho vs. Utah State (September 5)

The Vandals have quietly become one of the most dangerous FCS programs in the country. Idaho went 9-4 in 2025 and returns 16 starters, including quarterback Gevani McCoy (2,800 passing yards, 24 touchdowns), who is one of the most underrated signal-callers in the FCS. Utah State is in full rebuild mode, replacing 10 starters on defense and breaking in a new offensive coordinator. The Aggies went 5-7 in 2025 and lost their starting quarterback to the transfer portal. The Kibbie Dome — Idaho's iconic indoor stadium — is one of the toughest places to play in the FCS, and the Vandals have a history of upsetting FBS teams in Moscow (they beat Wyoming in 2023).

The Bigger Picture: Is the FCS Gap Closing?

The increasing frequency of transfer portal movement — both from FCS to FBS and from FBS to FCS — has blurred the traditional talent gap. Several top FCS programs now have NIL collectives that can retain star players, and the coaching salaries at the top of the FCS are competitive with mid-tier FBS programs. The result is a narrowing of the gap that could produce more FCS-over-FBS upsets in the coming years. For the 2026 season, the combination of experienced FCS rosters, transitioning FBS programs, and favorable schedule positioning creates the perfect storm for at least one — and possibly multiple — FCS teams to shock the college football world.

What This Means for CFB 27

In College Football 27, FCS teams are not playable in Dynasty mode, but the real-world FCS-FBS matchups affect the game's dynamic in two ways. First, the Dynasty mode simulation engine uses real-world roster strength to determine outcomes, so an FCS team with returning starters and high cohesion ratings can occasionally pull off an upset in simulated games. Second, the Ultimate Team mode occasionally features FCS player cards as part of "Underdog" promo events, where players from FCS teams that have notable FBS wins receive boosted ratings. If any of these five upsets materialize, the star players from those FCS teams could become highly sought-after Ultimate Team cards. For Road to Glory players, FCS schools are not available as player destinations, but the real-world implications of FCS upsets affect the national narrative and the playoff selection committee's perception of strength of schedule.