Ohio State Reigns Supreme

Bill Connelly's final preseason SP+ projections for the 2026 college football season place Ohio State at No. 1 overall with a 32.7 rating, making the Buckeyes the clear favorites heading into the new campaign. The SP+ — a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency — favors Ryan Day's squad based on returning production, recruiting rankings, and recent performance. Ohio State's defense projects as the nation's best (8.4 rating, No. 1), while the offense ranks second nationally (41.0).

Top 10 at a Glance

The preseason SP+ top 10 reads: 1. Ohio State (32.7), 2. Oregon (29.2), 3. Notre Dame (26.5), 4. Georgia (26.4), 5. Indiana (25.8), 6. Texas (22.8), 7. Miami (22.0), 8. Texas Tech (21.8), 9. Texas A&M (20.9), 10. LSU (20.4). Defending national champion Indiana checks in at No. 5 despite losing key pieces from its title run, a testament to the program's elevated recruiting and retention under head coach Curt Cignetti.

The Strength of the Big Ten

The Big Ten dominates the top of the SP+ rankings, with four teams in the top five (Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Indiana). Oregon's offense projects as the nation's most explosive (41.1 rating, No. 1), while the Ducks' defense ranks No. 2 nationally (12.2). The Big Ten's depth — with USC (No. 12), Michigan (No. 15), Penn State (No. 17), and Washington (No. 18) all in the top 20 — suggests the conference will be the deepest in college football in 2026.

SEC Questions Remain

Texas leads the SEC at No. 6 overall, but the Longhorns face the nation's toughest strength of schedule (SOS rank: 1). Georgia (No. 4) and LSU (No. 10) round out the SEC's top 10 representatives, while Texas A&M (No. 9) and Oklahoma (No. 11) are just outside. Alabama comes in at No. 13, continuing the post-Saban transition under its new coaching staff. The SEC's depth remains strong with Tennessee (No. 14), Ole Miss (No. 16), and Florida (No. 20) all in the top 20.

Preseason Rankings Are Predictive

Despite SMU coach Rhett Lashlee's criticism that preseason rankings are based on "arbitrary" baselines, SP+ projections have proven remarkably accurate. Of last year's projected top 15 teams, seven finished within one regular-season win of their August projections. Six teams — Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Texas A&M — overachieved their projections by at least 1.4 wins, primarily because of a combined 21-3 record in one-score games. The system isn't perfect — Clemson and Penn State significantly underachieved last year — but the priors are predictive.

What This Means for CFB 27

In College Football 27, SP+ projections closely mirror the game's overall team ratings. Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, and Texas are the highest-rated teams in the game, making them natural choices for Dynasty mode players seeking immediate playoff contention. For players looking for a challenge, No. 5 Indiana offers the unique experience of defending a national title with a roster that SP+ suggests will regress. Understanding SP+ rankings can also help CFB 27 players identify underrated teams for recruiting and Dynasty rebuilding projects.