Group of Six CFP Predictions 2026: Boise State Is the Pick — But NDSU, UNLV and USF Have Their Backers

One Seat at the Table

The math got harder for college football's second tier. After last season saw two non-Power Four teams — Tulane and James Madison — crash the College Football Playoff, the 2026 rules leave the Group of Six with essentially one guaranteed spot: the four Power Four champions auto-qualify, a top-12 Notre Dame takes its own slot (Duke, an at-large, found that out last year), and the G6 gets the last guaranteed seat.

CBS Sports' panel (Aug. 28) spread its G6 picks across four programs, with no consensus — a reflection of how wide open the tier has become after a coaching-carousel wave that hit even last year's playoff teams.

The Case for Each Contender

Boise State (John Talty — also Chip Patterson, Shehan Jeyarajah, David Cobb, Chris Hummer): The most popular pick. Spencer Danielson has already pulled off a berth once, and quarterback Maddux Madsen returns in the new-look Pac-12. A season opener at Oregon is brutal, but the in-conference slate — Fresno State and San Diego State — could decide the season.

North Dakota State (Brandon Marcello): The chaos pick. The Bison enter FBS with bowl eligibility in Year 1 after the NCAA changed its two-year probation rule, and Marcello likes the physicality: undefeated at home, an upset of UNLV in the Mountain West title game, and a slightly down American Conference opening the door.

UNLV (Tom Fornelli): The pragmatist pick. Dan Mullen's offensive track record plus a Mountain West that lost its historically strongest programs to the Pac-12. The door to the conference title is wider in the new MWC than anywhere else in the tier, and UNLV is its clear favorite.

South Florida (Richard Johnson): The moneyball pick. USF is among the most cash-flush G6 programs, and new coach Brian Hartline knows South Florida recruiting cold. Most of last year's offensive firepower is at Auburn now, but the schedule is friendly — the Bulls just may need to run the table.

The New-Name Watch

The carousel left last year's playoff teams with new coaches, and American heavyweights USF, North Texas and Memphis are also under first-year leadership. In a tier decided by continuity, that turnover is an opening — which is exactly why a first-year-FBS program like NDSU is even in the conversation.

What This Means for CFB 27

In College Football 27, the G6 playoff race is a Dynasty favorite for a reason: one spot, a dozen teams, zero margin. Boise State's recruitment pipeline remains the safe Dynasty pick — Strong defensive line, blue turf, and the sim loves a dominant ground game behind a veteran QB. UNLV is this year's value pick; Dan Mullen's scheme tag in-game turns mid-80s athletes into top-15 offenses. And if you want the true single-season challenge, NDSU's FBS-transition start means every loss is fatal. Their UT gold cards will be the scarcest non-P4 inventory on the market all fall.